Everything we do, everything that happens around us, obeys the laws of probability. We can no more escape them than we can escape gravity... "Probability," a philosopher (Bishop Butler) once said, "is the very guide of life." We are all gamblers who go through life making countless bets on the outcome of countless actions.

Every field of science is concerned with estimating probability. A physicist calculates the probable path of a particle. A geneticist calculates the chances that a couple will have blue-eyed children. Insurance companies, businessmen, stockbrokers, sociologists, politicians, military experts - all have to be skilled in calculating the probability of the events with which they are concerned.

[Gardner, 1986]

Synopsis

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that tells us how to estimate degrees of probability. If an event is certain to happen, it is given a probability of 1. If it is certain not to happen, it has a probability of 0.

This course introduces the principles of probability and random processes to undergraduate students in electronics and communication. The topics to be covered include random experiments, events, probability, discrete and continuous random variables, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, functions of random variables, expectations, law of large numbers, central limit theorem, introduction to random processes, Gaussian random process, autocorrelation and power spectral density.

Announcements

  • Note: In case the course website is unavailable,
  • The (second) online self-evaluation form is available now.
  • Information regarding the final exam [Updated @ 9AM on Dec 3]
    • Check this course website regularly for breaking news about the final.
    • Date: December 9, 2019
    • TIME: 9:00-12:00
    • ROOMs: BKD 3507
    • Basic calculators, e.g. FX-991MS, are permitted.
    • 10 pages + one cover page + one page for the Phi/Q tables
      • 19+1 = 20 questions. (5+4+2+4+1.5+4+3+6+21+0.5+18+10+4+8+3+2+1+1+1+1 pt)
      • To save time, read the cover page before going into the exam room.
    • Closed book. Closed notes.
    • One A4 sheet allowed.
      • Use the returned study sheet from the midterm exam.
      • Add more formulas or information on the remaining side (or in the remaining space(s)).
        • Basically, you have one whole page for the final exam.
        • Q: Can I make a brand new study sheet?
          A: No.
          However, if you think the old one is in a bad shape (falling apart), you can use a photocopy of your own. (Reduction in size is not allowed though)
        • Q: What can I do if I lose my study sheet?
          A: Dr.Prapun may be able to print out a scanned copy for you. (The1 writing won’t be as crisp as the original one but it’s better than nothing.) Otherwise, see below.
        • Q: I think the midterm study sheet (and the thing I wrote on it) is cursed (making me get poor score); I don’t want to see or use anything on it anymore. What can I do?
          A: You may bring a brand new sheet for the final exam. However, you can only use one side of it.
      • Basically, same rules as the midterm:
        • Must be hand-written in your own handwriting.
        • No small pieces of paper notes glued/attached on top of it.
        • Indicate your name and ID on the upper right corner of the sheet (in portrait orientation).
        • Do not modify (,e.g., add/underline/highlight) content on the sheet inside the exam room.
        • Submit your A4 sheet with your exam.
      • Violating the above instructions may cost you upto 10 pt.
    • Cover all the materials that we discussed in class and practice in the exercises and HWs.
  • Midterm results [Posted @ 10AM on Oct 10]
  • Information regarding the midterm exam [Posted @ 11PM on Sep 25; Updated @ 11PM on Sep 27]
    • Slides shown on Sep 26
    • Check this course website regularly for breaking news about the midterm.
    • The midterm exam:
      • 8 pages (including the cover page)
        • To save time, read the cover page before going into the exam room.
      • Draft:
        • 14+1 = 15 questions. (5+2+4+9+7+2+2+8+4+8+4+6+1+4+1 = 67 pt)
        • Cover all the materials that we discussed in class and practice in the HWs.
          • Material Distribution (score-wise): 7 (CH1-2) + 22 (CH3-4) + 15 (CH5) + 22 (CH6)
    • Closed book. Closed notes.
    • (1 pt) One A4 page allowed.
      • Must be hand-written in your own handwriting.
      • No small pieces of paper notes glued/attached on top of it.
      • Indicate your name and ID on the upper right corner of the sheet (in portrait orientation).
      • Do not modify (,e.g., add/underline/highlight) content on the sheet inside the exam room.
      • Make sure that another side is blank. This will be used for the final exam.
      • Submit your A4 sheet with your exam. (You will get it back before the final exam.)
      • Q: I don't need any formulas. What should I do?
        A: Bring in and submit a blank sheet of paper with your name and ID.
      • Violating the above instructions will cost you 10 pt.
    • Basic SIIT-approved calculators, e.g,. FX-991MS, are permitted, but borrowing is not allowed.
    • For your studying pleasure....
  • Graded exercises are posted on Google Drive.
  • Note that we also share the tutorial/make-up session with ECS332. See Google calendar below.
  • This site can be accessed via ecs315.prapun.com.
  • Welcome to ECS315! Feel free to look around this site.

General Information

Handouts and Course Material

Problem Set

  1. HW Submission
    1. Announcement [Posted @ 10AM on Aug 23]
    2. Online HW Submission
      • For those who directly work on the posted HW files using devices with pen input and don’t want to print a hardcopy.
      • No scanned work or photos.
      • PDF only.
      • Your file name should start with your 10-digit student ID followed by the course code and the assignment number: “5565242231 315 HW1.pdf”
  2. HW 1 (Due: Aug 29)
  3. HW 2 (Due: Sep 5)
  4. HW 3 (Due: Sep 12)
  5. HW 4 (Due: Sep 19)
  6. HW 5 (Due: Sep 26)
  7. HW6 (Not Due)
  8. Self-Evaluation Form (1) (Due: Oct 3)
  9. HW7 (Due: Oct 24)
  10. HW8 (Due: Oct 31)
  11. HW9 (Due: Nov 7)
  12. HW10 (Due: Nov 14)
  13. HW11 (Due: Nov 21)
  14. HW12 (Not Due)
  15. HW13 (Not Due)
  16. HW Scores
  17. Self-Evaluation Form (2) (Due: Dec 9)


Reading Assignment

  1. Section 1.2 in the lecture notes
  2. Section 2.5 in the lecture notes

Old Exams

More References

Misc. Links